🏈 Tennessee's playoff begins Saturday

Hello. This is the Josh and Swain Newsletter, a quick roundup of the week’s top stories and topics involving Tennessee and the sports world.

Here’s what we have for you today:

• Tennessee’s shot at hosting a College Football Playoff game

• But first… what Tennessee needs to do to ensure a win at Vanderbilt

• Is Tennessee’s basketball team better than last year’s squad?

• Dylan Sampson’s national snub and the fuel it should give the Vols

PLAYOFF ODDS AND HOME-FIELD HOPES

Tennessee’s playoff begins this weekend. 

The Vols are not in the College Football Playoff yet, but a win this weekend should put UT in the 12-team field. 

Tennessee climbed to No. 8 in the playoff rankings on Tuesday thanks to several upsets last weekend.

In the current ranking, Tennessee would be the No. 9 seed — that’s the last team out of hosting a first-round game. 

(Teams seeded 5-8 will host in the first round. Here’s a reminder of the playoff format.)

While Tennessee would need help to host a first-round game, a win against Vanderbilt should put the Vols in the playoff. 

ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Tennessee a 97-percent chance to make the playoff with a win over Vandy.

“Everybody in the building knows the reality of the game (and) how much it means,” Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson said on Monday. “It basically is a playoff game.”

Everything can change so quickly. 

Last week, Tennessee was the first team out of the field. 

This week, Tennessee is the first team out of hosting a first-round game. 

Tennessee’s first priority is simple: beat Vanderbilt (which we’ll get to in a moment).

Tennessee fans will also keep an eye on other games to see if they might help UT rise higher in the rankings… as long as the Vols win on Saturday. 

Here are a few games to pay attention to this weekend:

◼️ Georgia Tech at Georgia

The Vols would love to see Georgia get a third loss, making the SEC title game a potential must-win for UGA to make the playoff. 

Of course, Georgia Tech winning a night game in Athens would be a big upset. 

Let’s see if the Yellow Jackets can pull off a stunner.

◼️ Notre Dame at USC

Notre Dame will host a first-round game with a win in Los Angeles. 

But what if the Trojans pull the upset?

Tennessee cold jump Notre Dame, which currently ranks No. 5.

USC has had a disappointing season, but the Trojans have led in the fourth quarter of all 11 games this season. 

USC should have a real chance to win this game.

◼️ Miami at Syracuse 

Miami ranks No. 6 right now with only one loss on the season. 

If Syracuse wins, Miami could fall behind Tennessee and need a win in the ACC title game just to make the playoff field. 

◼️ South Carolina at Clemson

It’s difficult to say what Tennessee fans want here. 

The answer is probably a South Carolina win.

Clemson at 10-2 is closer to jumping into the field, despite the Tigers’ subpar resume (which would get a boost with a win this weekend). 

A 9-3 South Carolina shouldn’t jump a 10-2 Tennessee. 

◼️ California at SMU

SMU is a team on the rise. 

The Mustangs are 10-1 and ranked only one spot behind Tennessee. 

A loss this weekend would end SMU’s chance of leaping Tennessee as an at-large team.

◼️ Michigan at Ohio State

Can Michigan make it four straight against Ohio State?

Unlikely.

Ohio State will host the game with a better team and tons of motivation.

The probable outcome is Ohio State winning and improving to 11-1.

Tennessee fans will pull for Michigan just in case.

◼️ Maryland at Penn State

Maryland winning might be the biggest upset of this group.

James Franklin’s teams beat bad teams at home — and Maryland is bad.

But Tennessee fans can root against Penn State and hope for an early Christmas surprise.

JUST WIN, BABY

Let’s be clear about this weekend: Tennessee still needs a win at Vanderbilt to reach the playoff. 

📍 Nashville
⏰ 12:00 p.m. ET
📺 ABC
📻 99.1 The Sports Animal/WIVK

Technically, UT could lose on Saturday and still have a shot at the playoff… but I don’t recommend trying that route. 

This isn’t the Vanderbilt everyone beat up on the last few years. 

This Vandy team has beaten Alabama at home, won at Auburn and Kentucky, and played LSU, Missouri and Texas within one score. 

South Carolina is the only team to beat Vandy by double digits this season (28-7 on Nov. 9).

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea changed his staff and roster during the offseason, and the moves have paid off. 

Tennessee will enter this game with all the pressure while Vanderbilt has all the motivation to play spoiler. 

So what are some keys to Tennessee avoiding an upset in Nashville?

Here are a few. 

🟠 Third-down defense

Tennessee can’t allow Vandy to extend drives. 

The Commodores haven’t been a great offensive team this season — they’ve failed to score more than 17 points in their last three games. 

But they have a tricky offense and will attempt to confuse Tennessee.

UT’s defense needs to get off the field and keep Vandy from getting into a rhythm. 

⚫ Slow down Diego Pavia

This is a big part of Tennessee’s defense getting off the field. 

Pavia is a good runner with elite confidence. 

He’s not playing at 100-percent health, but that won’t keep Pavia from giving his all in this game. 

Vandy hit big plays and converted key third and fourth downs to pull the upset against Alabama. 

Vanderbilt’s leading receiver is Eli Stowers, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound tight end.

Pavia will look for him on Saturday.

Remember Georgia’s use of the tight ends against Tennessee?

You can bet the Vols do. 

🟠 Red Zone success

Vanderbilt may not have a great offense, but the Commodores have capitalized on opportunities. 

Vandy ranks No. 3 in the SEC in red-zone scoring. 

Tennessee’s offense ranks 14th in the league in the same category. 

Tennessee’s defense needs to hold Vandy out of the end zone when the Commodores get the opportunity. 

This is a strong-on-strong matchup as Tennessee’s defense is No. 3 in the SEC in getting red-zone stops.

Tennessee should win if it’s the better red-zone team on Saturday. 

⚫ Fast start

Tennessee made it look easy in last week’s 56-0 win over UTEP.

But the Vols didn’t get going until the second quarter. 

Another scoreless first quarter had fans frustrated — and understandably so. 

Can Tennessee overcome another slow start this Saturday?

Sure. The Vols have done it over and over again this year. 

But if Tennessee can build a first quarter lead, Vandy will have a harder time rallying because of its limited passing game. 

THE NEW (AND IMPROVED?) TENNESSEE

Tennessee basketball is off to a great start. 

The Vols are 7-0 and have the nation talking. 

Last Friday, Chaz Lanier hit seven three-pointers (all in the first half) in Tennessee’s 77-62 win over Baylor. 

Lanier was named the Baha Mar Championship MVP and received SEC Player of the Week honors. 

He’s the latest transfer to look like a big-impact player for Tennessee.

Lanier scored 18 points and hit four three-pointers in Tennessee’s win over UT-Martin on Wednesday. 

Afterward, UT-Martin coach Jeremy Shulman praised Tennessee’s team and the way Rick Barnes consistently builds a winner.

“I think Tennessee might be the best team in the country,” Shulman said.

He even suggested this year’s team is better than last year’s squad, which won the SEC regular season title and reached the Elite Eight.

Tennessee ranks No. 7 in the AP Poll but even higher in several metrics.

Joe Lunardi has UT as a No. 1 seed in his bracket projection (LONG way to go, of course).

And Ken Pomeroy has Tennessee as a top-2 team in the nation. 

Tennessee took a hit this week: forward JP Estrella announced he needs season-ending foot surgery.

That leaves a question about UT’s front-court depth. 

Tennessee’s also waiting on the return of wing Cameron Carr, who should be back from a thumb injury in about a month.

Rick Barnes loves the talent of his roster, however.

“I think when Cam gets back at Christmas, I think we’ll have as good a 10-man rotation that we’ve had since we’ve been here,” Barnes said earlier this week.

That’s big talk… which more and more people are buying.

SAMPSON’S SNUB

The three finalists for the Doak Walker Award — given to the nation’s best running back — were announced earlier this week.

• Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
• Kaleb Johnson, Iowa
• Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

You’ll notice Dylan Sampson’s name is missing from the list.

Surprised?

You’re not alone.

Tennessee fans and local media took issue with the snub, myself included.

But are we too close to it?

Perhaps, but several national media members took up for Sampson, too.

ESPN’s Marty Smith called it “senseless” when he learned Sampson wasn’t a finalist.

It’s hard to believe Sampson, who should be the favorite to win SEC Offensive Player of the Year, isn’t one of the top three running backs in the country.

It’s also unfair to knock the three finalists — they’re all having a terrific season.

(Jeanty is going to win the award, by the way. He’s having a historic season at Boise.)

But Sampson was snubbed this week.

His teammates and coaches know it.

“In my opinion, he’s the best back in the nation,” UT running back Coach De’Rail Sims said this week.”

They’ll try to remind everyone on Saturday.

For Tennessee, that’s a good thing.

SANDERS WATCH

The early signing period for recruiting will begin next weekend.

And Tennessee’s top-rated commit is still undecided — at least publicly.

Five-star offensive tackle David Sanders Jr. took a visit to Ohio State last weekend.

This caused some concern among Tennessee fans.

Losing Sanders, the nation’s No. 1 ranked offensive tackle, would be a huge blow.

So will Tennessee lose him?

Right now, UT feels good about its chances of holding onto Sanders.

The Vols’ coaches would feel even better if Sanders went ahead and stated publicly that he’ll sign with Tennessee and has eliminated the Buckeyes.

Sanders posted this photo on his Instagram story on Thursday — offering a tease for Tennessee fans.

A lot of people can’t stand to follow high school football recruiting.

The Sanders story is an example why.

Everyone knows Sanders has agreed to a high-dollar figure to play football at Tennessee.

But he’s allowed to negotiate or flirt with other schools as long as he’s a free agent.

This applies everywhere — Tennessee just flipped running back Daune Morris from Southern Cal earlier this week (a nice get for UT).

Keep an eye on Sanders to make sure he doesn’t visit Columbus again this weekend.

If he stays home in Charlotte, there’s a good chance he’s decided to stick with Tennessee.

But anything can happen in the world of football recruiting.

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