🏈 Predicting Tennessee's 2024 record

Hello. This is the Josh and Swain Newsletter, a quick roundup of the week’s top stories and topics involving Tennessee and the sports world.

Here’s what we have for you today:

• Why the NC State game will matter for Tennessee’s offense

• A final record prediction for Tennessee’s 2024 season

• Tennessee stays hot in recruiting… with more good news expected

• Orange or Smokey Grey for the opener… which do you prefer?

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Now, to the newsletter…

DON’T OVERLOOK THE PACK

Tennessee’s first true test of the season will take place on Sept. 7 when the Vols play North Carolina State in Charlotte. 

A lot of fans — not all! — have brushed the NC State game aside as a sure win for Tennessee. 

The Vols stand a good chance to win; FanDuel has Tennessee favored by 4.5 points. 

Tennessee might even blow out NC State — that wouldn’t be a surprise. 

NC State does have a talented transfer quarterback in Grayson McCall, an experienced offensive line and a talented group of skill position players, led by wide receiver KC Concepcion. 

But there’s another angle to consider with this game: NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson. 

David Ubben of The Athletic explained on our show this week:

NC State won’t have the most talented defense that Tennessee faces this season. 

Several of UT’s opponents, including Alabama and Georgia, rank higher on that list. 

But NC State should have one of the most prepared defenses — and early in the season when the Vols will be trying to prove what they can do. 

This info is not meant to scare you about the NC State game. 

Tennessee can win and according to the oddsmakers, should win the game. 

As Ubben pointed out, a big offensive performance against NC State could offer a sign that Tennessee’s offense is ready to explode this season. 

Just don’t cross off the NC State game before it’s played. 

It has more importance than you might have considered. 

TENNESSEE’S RECORD IN 2024

Here’s the most common question of the last month: How many games will Tennessee win this season?

Well, it’s prediction time.

We could save this for another week, but why put it off any longer?

Plus, there will be a few games this upcoming weekend, including Florida State vs Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday.

The college football season is here.

So my record prediction for Tennessee during the regular season is…

10-2

I spent a lot of the offseason saying I leaned toward 9-3.

So have I been caught by the August trap, which can often lead to an extra win for the local team?

Maybe!

Let’s break it down a little further.

I have three reasons why I’m confident in my prediction. And three reasons why I’m worried.

🟠 WHY I’M CONFIDENT IN MY PREDICTION

1️⃣ Tennessee’s defensive line

The Vols’ D-line received a lot of hype during the offseason.

And the hype looks for real.

Tennessee has an elite talent (James Pearce Jr.) to go with tremendous depth and several guys who could play in the NFL from the interior.

This could play a big role in the Oklahoma matchup as the Sooners’ biggest question appears to be on the offensive line.

A strong defensive line should give Tennessee a chance in every game.

2️⃣ The schedule is favorable

The schedule is not easy. But it’s favorable.

The Vols have three sure wins in the nonconference and SEC games against five of the bottom six teams in the media’s predicted order of finish: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

Going to Oklahoma will be tough. NC State is no gimme.

And the Alabama and Georgia games speak for themselves.

Can Tennessee avoid a big upset and go 3-2 against NC State, Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama and Georgia?

I’m betting yes.

3️⃣ Tennessee’s offense could take off

Can the Vols return to 2022 form?

That might be asking a bit much considering UT led the nation in points per game that season.

But what if they come close?

The 2022 offense helped produce a 10-2 season.

And this year’s defense has a chance to be better than two years ago.

“I think all in all when you look at this team and this roster, this is what Josh Heupel and that staff have been building toward,” ESPN’s Chris Low told us on Thursday.

🟠 WHY I’M CONCERNED WITH MY PREDICTION

1️⃣ Injuries

Picking a record because of injury concerns can feel like a cop out.

But guess what?

Injuries are a real concern, and the Vols are vulnerable in several spots.

An injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava could wreck the season.

The center and offensive tackle positions need to stay healthy.

What if Keenan Pili and/or Arion Carter go down at linebacker?

Injuries at any of the above positions could take 10-2 off the table.

2️⃣ The secondary

Maybe this group turns out to be terrific.

But it’s a huge unknown with five new starters entering the season.

The talent is exciting.

Sophomore cornerbacks Rickey Gibson and Jermod McCoy are athletic.

Freshman Boo Carter could be a playmaker at STAR.

But if they’re not ready, UT’s defensive backs could find trouble against the strong group of quarterbacks they’ll face this season.

3️⃣ Margin of error

Tennessee went 10-2 in 2022, but it was far from easy.

The Vols needed a last second field goal to beat Alabama — and that was after Jahmyr Gibbs dropped a pass on the previous possession that would have likely won the game for the Tide.

Remember the Pittsburgh game?

Tennessee needed overtime to win that one.

Tennessee has a real chance to go 10-2. But it will NOT be easy.

➡️ So there’s my prediction: 10-2 for Tennessee, which should put the Vols in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

How many games do YOU think Tennessee will win this fall?

Answer in our poll below.

Let us know what you think!

SPORTS NUGGETS

🏈 Late Kick host Josh Pate sees a 7-5 yo 11-1 as the potential range of outcomes for Tennessee this season. Watch his full prediction for UT here.

🏈 Brett McMurphy’s playoff and bowl predictions have Tennessee out of the playoff… and a few surprise teams that make it.

🏈 The SEC coaches chose Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. and Cooper Mays for the preseason All-SEC first-team while Dylan Sampson and Squirrel White made the third-team.

🏈 A former Colorado assistant spent time in the Middle East … lobbying Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund for NIL funding on behalf of Colorado football.

🏀 Which college basketball programs have the best NIL situations? CBB coaches offered their opinions.

🏀 Tennessee will open SEC play vs John Calipari, Jonas Aidoo and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Here’s the Vols’ full SEC hoops schedule.

⚽ Ohio State’s president hints at cutting funding for certain sports, which will lead to some of them operating more “like a club sport.”

TENNESSEE LANDS THE BIG ONE

It’s hard to imagine Tennessee’s summer going much better when it comes to recruiting.

The Vols brought in a long list of four- and five-star prospects in June and landed a bunch of them in July and August.

The latest commitments:

✅ five-star offensive tackle David Sanders Jr. from Charlotte, N.C.
✅ four-star linebacker Jaedon Harmon from Rome, Ga.

Sanders was Tennessee’s top target after quarterback George MacIntrye committed in January.

Sanders is a huge talent who chose Tennessee over Georgia, Ohio State and Nebraska (and every other team in the country).

“He’s a future left tackle,” On3 director of rankings and scouting Charles Power told us earlier this month.

The Harmon news arrived Sunday after he flipped his commitment from Alabama.

Harmon initially committed to Alabama after Tennessee’s change with its linebacker coach position during the offseason.

But Harmon stayed interested in and wanted to know more about new linebackers coach William Inge.

According to Austin Price of Volquest, Harmon reached out to current UT players to learn about Inge.

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has praised the recruiting effort of current players.

That’s why.

And Tennessee might not be done adding players in the month of August.

The next player to watch: cornerback Onis Konanbanny.

The four-star prospect from Columbia, S.C., will announce his choice between Florida State and Tennessee on Friday.

And the Vols appear to be in good shape entering the announcement.

Tennessee’s main focus is on the field as the season approaches.

But the Vols’ hard work on recruiting for the future has paid off.

🎧 Check out our full conversation with Austin Price below or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

AN ALTERNATE START

There will be some extra grey in Neyland Stadium on Aug. 31, even if the sun is shining on Rocky Top.

Tennessee confirmed the Vols will open the season wearing “The Volunteer State” Smokey grey uniform.

From Tennessee:

So we’ll see the new design to kick off the 2024 season.

Alternate uniforms often create three types of responses:

• those who like it
• those who don’t like it
• those who could go either way

While I would have suggested playing the home opener wearing an orange and white uniform, I mostly fall in the “go either way” camp.

There is a shared opinion among all fans when it comes to alternate uniforms: you better win in them.

That shouldn’t be a problem for Tennessee in the opener.

HOOPS FOR HOPE

One of the best events of the year returns this weekend.

The annual Hoops for Hope event will take place at Farragut High School on Saturday from 11-1.

Both Tennessee’s men’s and women’s basketball teams (and their coaches) will be there as individuals with Down Syndrome age 10 and up will play basketball on Farragut’s court.

The event is FREE to attend so you can cheer on everyone participating.

99.1 The Sports Animal will broadcast live from 9-noon at the event.

If you’re in the area, please swing by to check it out.

It will be the happiest place in Knoxville this weekend.

CLICK HERE to learn more about the Down Syndrome Awareness Group of East Tennessee.

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