Tennessee's Playoff Opportunity

Hello. This is the Josh and Swain Newsletter, a quick roundup of the week’s top stories and topics involving Tennessee and the sports world.

Here’s what we have for you today:

• What the College Football Playoff ranking showed us

• Tennessee’s offensive woes continue… will they stop this week?

• Key questions that need an answer this Saturday

• Bob Kesling’s retirement as Tennessee’s play-by-play voice

THE FIRST LEG OF THE PLAYOFF RACE

You know the College Football Playoff race is real when we get our first playoff ranking of the season.

Tennessee came in at No. 7 in the initial ranking that was released on Tuesday.

If the playoff started this week – which it doesn’t, of course – the Vols would be the No. 8 seed and host No. 9 seed Indiana.

➡️ Remember, the four highest-ranked conference champs receive the first-round byes. In this case, 9th-ranked BYU would be the No. 4 seed as the projected Big 12 champ.

A LOT will change between now and Dec. 8 when the 12-team playoff field is selected.

The only thing we do know is that the rankings will change in the next five weeks.

“The playoff rankings at this point don’t matter,” Josh Heupel said on Monday ahead of the initial release.

Heupel has a point, especially from his team’s perspective. 

Tennessee needs to focus on winning games, not where a committee ranks them 2/3 through the season.

But the rankings can tell us something. 

For starters, the committee views one-loss Tennessee more favorably than unbeaten Indiana and BYU.

That’s not a total surprise; the Vols’ strength of schedule (33rd) is well ahead of Indiana (103rd) and BYU (61st). 

Tennessee’s offense has its issues, but the defense looks legit.

That gives the Vols an eye-test advantage over a lot of non-SEC teams.

Tennessee is four spots ahead of Alabama, eight spots ahead of LSU, and nine spots ahead of Ole Miss.

Can Tennessee afford another loss and still hold off those other teams if they’re 10-2 at the end of the season?

That might depend on how good Tennessee looks if it loses at Georgia.

A competitive loss on the road shouldn’t do too much damage; a performance similar to the 2022 game probably would.

It would help Tennessee if Georgia beats Ole Miss this Saturday; a third loss would eliminate Lane Kiffin’s team from the conversation.

Alabama will play at LSU on Saturday night – the loser of that game will be out of the mix, too.

There’s a lot of football to be played.

We know the rankings we saw on Tuesday will change several times before the playoff field is selected.

You might even be fatigued from the discussion of the different scenarios.

We received messages all week asking us to “just focus on Tennessee winning its games and taking care of business.”

That sure needs to be the Vols’ focus.

TENNESSEE’S OFFENSIVE STARTS

Another week, another discussion about Tennessee’s offensive issues in the first half of games.

Many UT fans are asking the same question:

Is this just who Tennessee’s offense is this season?

Well, maybe.

Tennessee has scored just seven first-half points in the last four games, and the Vols haven’t scored in the first quarter of a game since Sept. 21 against Oklahoma.

So if you’ve decided this is what Tennessee’s offense is at this point – a group hampered by inevitable mistakes – I can’t argue.

But there are still reasons to believe the Vols can perform better on offense.

Last week, Tennessee ran several plays that would have resulted in points with better execution.

Nico Iamaleava delivered a ball to Chris Brazzell that should have been caught for a touchdown.

Miles Kitselman had an opportunity in the first half but came up short. On that play, Kentucky’s defense deserves credit for the pass breakup.

And while Tennessee doesn’t want to settle for field goals, Max Gilbert had three makeable kicks against Kentucky.

He just didn’t make any of them.

The problem is obvious: Tennessee has stopped itself from scoring WAY too many times.

Penalties. Turnovers. Inaccurate throws. Dropped passes. Missed kicks.

Everyone sees the opportunities for Tennessee’s offense.

The Vols have to take advantage of them.

They also need to help the quarterback — Iamaleava had his best performance as a Vol last week.

Here’s what Josh Heupel said following Tennessee’s win over Kentucky:

Let’s see if Tennessee can make that happen on Saturday against Mississippi State.

UT is about to play the SEC’s worst team.

Mississippi State ranks last in the league in both total defense and scoring defense.

Tennessee has proven it can move the ball — the Vols just need to advance the it across the goal line.

Mississippi State has let teams do that all season; every SEC team has scored at least 34 points against the Bulldogs.

The Vols haven’t reached 30 points in a game since Sept. 14 against Kent State.

Sportsbooks have set Tennessee’s point total for Saturday at about 43 points.

It’s time for Tennessee to put up a big number on Saturday.

And if it doesn’t happen? Well, maybe next week… against Georgia?

SPORTS NUGGETS

🏈 LSU will have a live tiger on the sideline on Saturday to help welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide.

🏈 Florida AD Scott Stricklin announced Billy Napier will continue as the Gators’ coach. UF will finish the season against Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State.

🏈 Here is everything to know ahead of this weekend’s slate of college football games.

🏈 South Carolina freshman standout Dylan Stewart is negotiating a new deal with the Gamecocks’ collective for $1-1.5 million next year, according to On3.

🏀 Andrea Adelson wrote about Danny White’s unexpected hire of Kim Caldwell and her motivation to prove her boss right.

🏀 Here’s a look at the Tennessee-Louisville game (noon ET tip-off on Saturday) from Louisville’s side. The Cards are led by first-year head coach Pat Kelsey.

🎙️ Brent Hubbs wrote this thank you column to the retiring Bob Kesling.

BRING ON THE BULLDOGS

Tennessee is a big favorite in Saturday’s game against Mississippi State — by 24.5 points as of this writing.

📍 Neyland Stadium
⏰ 7:45 p.m. ET
📺 SEC Network
📻 99.1 The Sports Animal/WIVK

So what are some of the storylines entering Saturday’s game?

Here are a few.

🟠 Tennessee’s running back rotation

Dylan Sampson had another big performance against Kentucky, rushing for 142 yards and two touchdowns (and setting UT’s single-season rushing TD record).

But DeSean Bishop went out with an injury and will miss Saturday’s game vs Mississippi State.

That means freshman Peyton Lewis is expected to serve as UT’s No. 2 running back.

He carried the ball eight times for 24 yards and scored the Vols’ only-first half touchdown against Kentucky.

Look for more Lewis carries this week.

Sophomore Cam Seldon is trending toward a redshirt, Austin Price of Volquest told us this week, which leaves UT with Sampson, Lewis and sophomore Khalifa Keith at running back.

Sampson has carried the load all season… but he’ll still need a break on Saturday.

⚫ Tennessee’s defensive streak

Tennessee’s defense probably wasn’t happy with its overall performance last week.

Kentucky ran for 168 yards and forced mistakes by Tennessee’s defense.

Still, Kentucky finished with 18 points, extending UT’s streak of holding opponents under 20 points to nine games (including last year’s bowl win).

Will Mississippi State reach 20 points on Saturday?

Don’t automatically dismiss the Bulldogs’ offense.

Mississippi State averages 29.1 points a game and runs tempo under coach Jeff Lebby.

Tennessee’s defense should be ready for the tempo.

After all, the Vols see it every day in practice.

Mississippi State freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for more than 300 yards in two SEC games, including against Georgia on Oct. 12.

Those Van Buren boys are tough.

🟠 WR Mike Matthews

Will Tennessee’s highly-touted freshman receiver get more of an opportunity this week?

That’s another tired question at this point in the season.

But has he not earned it?

Matthews received national recognition this week for his pancake block in the Kentucky game.

Coaches have to love seeing that kind of effort from a freshman.

Fans would love to see Matthews get some targets this week.

⚫ Tennessee’s kicking game

Gilbert’s three missed kicks came up earlier in the newsletter.

Let’s see how he does on Saturday if he has the opportunity to kick another field goal.

There’s no indication Heupel is ready to make a change — yet.

But what if Gilbert misses another gimme?

There will be a lot of nervous energy in Neyland Stadium for his first attempt.

Gilbert has the leg and talent. But he has to break out of his recent slump.

THIS ONE’S FOR BOB

Bob Kesling announced on Thursday that he will retire as Tennessee’s Director of Broadcasting following the Tennessee men’s basketball season.

Kesling has been the Vols’ play-by-play voice since 1999.

Beyond that, Kesling has been a staple in the broadcasting community for more than 50 years.

A 2024 Tennessee Radio Hall of Fame inductee, consider this section from Kesling’s resume:

• He arrived at UT as a walk-on fullback on the Vols’ 1972 freshman football team.
• In 1976, Kesling became the spotter for John Ward on Vol Network broadcasts.
• Kesling served as the Lady Vols’ play-by-play voice from 1978 to 1999.
• He became WIVK Radio’s Sports Director in 1976, the WBIR-TV’s Sports Director in 1980.
• He served as PBP announce for the Jefferson-Pilot Sports SEC package for nearly a decade.

The biggest item on Kesling’s resume: the guidance he’s provided for others.

Kesling has helped a countless number of broadcasters, some who still work for the Vol Network and others who have moved on to build their careers elsewhere.

In 1999, Kesling took on the difficult position of replacing John Ward, a true Tennessee legend.

Kesling has been a pro all the way through.

Congrats to Bob on a Hall of Fame career, which isn’t over yet.

As many Tennessee fans have noted, the Vols won a football national championship the last time UT’s play-by-play voice decided to retire.

Kesling — and Tennessee fans — would love to see history repeat itself.

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